The Anti-Turner ETF

Whilst researching Garth Turner's historical predictive record a little more thoroughly, it became apparent that Turner does indeed have a quite remarkable knack of picking market tops and bottoms, (with just the occasional "catching the falling knife" episode) but always 180 degrees in the wrong direction. Therefore the thesis of the Anti-Turner ETF is simply to take up opposing (theoretical to start with) positions to Turner. As he issues his financial commentary, the ETF just immediately fades his advice. 

Although it should be noted the laws of mathematics require that as time progresses, the probability of Turner getting one right eventually, at the right time, must increase. After all how many times can anybody throw all "Tails" in a row?  

We will list the trades and update here over time.

07-Jan 2012  Trade 1. 

Trade recommendation - Sunday 06 Jan 2012
This is precisely the pattern I’ve been telling you for months to expect. Financial assets ascending. Real assets descending. Money surging from bonds to stocks. Commodities squished. And real estate taking it on the chin.
So, your bond fund lost money this week. So did your house in Vancouver. And your silver and gold. In contrast, the S&P 500 (the only US market to watch) rose 4.6% and is now at the highest level since December of 2007. The Dow added 3.8%. Even the Russell 2000, an index of small companies, surged 5.7%, to an all-time crest. 
Anti-Turner ETF positions at futures open (Sundays closing prices):
  • Short S&P at 1462.90 
  • Short Dow at 13414 
Update 08-Jan 2012

Well, it would appear Turner still has the gift..  :) 

With 100 points leeway, we will now attach a stop-loss to these 2 trades at the breakeven point, so they cannot lose, and if (Turner's) history is anything to go by, this could be a decent January.

For the sake of clarity, lets assume we used a $100,000 trading account and sold 10 emini futures contracts of each Dow & S&P.

Account approx current value $102,000+/-  or +2% in two trading days.  It is tempting to now bank it, and take the rest of January off, but as there is no risk of capital loss at this point, others feel there is also much potential here with our new contrarian indicator and we should focus.

Update 10 Jan 2012

So as we had suspected, from a daily trading perspective the markets had another push up towards the gap-up highs yesterday and technically hit the stops on these two trades last night, taking us out at break even.

However its entirely possible that the marketmaking computers wanted to trap a few final (dumb) longs right at the top, before heading down to fill the gap again, so for the sake of the ETF we will assume that we will either re-enter again higher if a clean entry is possible, or from a sell order at the same level on the way back down, as we have high confidence in the data on Turner's (unintentional, ie reversed) Top & Bottom picking talents.

Update 14 Jan 2013 - AT_ETF Idiots Trade 2

Certain idiot traders don't really trade Stock Indices much, however as the historical data so strongly suggests that Turner's bullish call here has significant near to intermediate term potential profit, we think a continuous negative bias here has a reasonable probability of being profitable.

A suitable target for the project would be +10-20% of the account size from this call over the next few weeks, and to be closing out the profitable trades while Turner is simultaneously similarly down (and fielding redemption calls?)

However as idiot traders can  never really know when "the big one" might happen, they will just attempt to keep taking slices out in the opposite direction to their trusted contrarian indicator and wait for the floor to fall out. One big earnings miss and/or the US debt nonsense should be enough. : )
  • Short S&P at 1473.1 
  • Short Dow at 13499 
Here's how it looks to some idiots..

This dumb money trapping cycle repeats across all timescales, but it just so happens that on the big picture, this is just about the best place to bet on a significant decline you could possibly hope for, and so with our trusty contrarian indicator confirmation in play, this has the potential to have made the ETF's whole year by end Feb. 

Update 16th Jan 2013

Yesterday was an OK day, as reported here and here we took +3.1% (banked) in two slices from the S&P trade, and with 20 contracts still in play, reloaded the short heavily at yesterday's highs.

The DOW trade hit the stops at breakeven (again, second time) and also got reloaded heavily

At approx 50 points in profit each, open float (not closed & banked) is approx +9.6% at this point  :)
  • Dow  = 50 x 68 = $3400 (+3.4%) 
  • S&P  = (20 x 70) + (80 x 60) = 1400 + 4800 = $6200 (+6.2%)

16 Jan Continued update post here

So once again the S&P leads the DOW, hitting TP1 (6 S&P points (60 equiv) at which point 50 of the 80 contracts removed for +$3000 or +3%

The AT ETF trading account is now at $106100 (banked, non-returnable) 
or +6.1% since this time yesterday.

The ETF is still short 50 contracts S&P and 68 DOW with stop losses at breakeven, ie no risk of loss below $106100, the idiots are excited to see what the day brings. 

Update 2 DOW TP1 (Finally) 50 contracts x 60 points = $3000 or +3% 

ETF Trading account now $109100  (banked) and still short 50 Contracts S&P & 18 DOW

Update  3.  Second tranche of 30 S&P contracts stopped at breakeven

DOW still 18 contracts short, S&P still 20 contracts short, if the market does not push convincingly higher and take out all our previous short positions (at breakeven)  then we will be re-entering once again.  If the market pushes higher and takes all the stops, we'll just have to be happy with +6% today and +3.1% yesterday. 

Of course moving forwards the new capital base is 9% more, allowing 9% larger trade positions, and hopefully commensurate cumulative profits. 

Yet Another Update - yep, having some of that, re-entered S&P at same point, 70 contracts short @ 17 pip stop = 1.1% account risk

Yet Another Update -  Stopped out all S&P trades - $1190 

Analysis of loss: the mistake here was too tight a stop, one must remember that a stop loss for a short position, is actually a "buy" order at that point, because to close out a short (sale) you have to buy back the position, therefore market makers want to collect all those buy orders before once more heading down to bank them. As you can see on the longer term chart, with a 25 pip stop, this trade would have turned profitable quickly, the idiots were too greedy on position size, 40 contracts at 25 points was a theoretical winner.

EFT Total = $107910  - Still short 18 contracts on DOW from 15530, stop @ breakeven

Update 17 Jan 2013 - Stopped on DOW @ breakeven. 

Looks like a news spike popped equities through their resistance around previous highs. Overnight this trade could have been closed for +$1000 ish, but with no risk idiots prefer to just let it ride and instead win big every few times. Not this time. 

AT_ETF Idiots still looking to re-enter short if the market sets up correctly.. 

Update 2 -17th Jan 

Yet again idiots are shorting.. 

  • Short S&P @ 1483.9 - 30 point stop
  • Short DOW @ 13620 - 30 point stop
Might they get steamrollered? Yes. You know what they say about not standing in front of freight trains and steamrollers. However our strategy isnt trying to pick up pennies either. Interestingly though, the more astute may have noticed that the idiots are actually making money, whilst being simultaneously wrong about the bias : )  hmmm.... 

Hence this is worth a more conservative shot, approx 1% account risk each trade, 30 pip stop x 35 contracts each.  If it goes into profit we'll start layering in heavier on the way down. 

Update 3 Jan 17th

Nice, just enough time for a slightly nervous dinner and back to see 40 points profit on S&P.

Stops to breakeven,  Dow lagging again, stops still 30 points, total account risk now 1%. Idiots would rather be stopped out at zero on one of these, and re-enter if wrong

Final Update of the day, (idiots have restaurants to go to to tonite) 
DOW hit 13590 (+30pts) so stop to breakeven also. Trades once again Risk Free, and so the idiots will not be assigning auto take profits and try to run them lower down, in case this is THE top. 

Seeyall for the smell of profit (or zero) in the morning. Please be advised that as these two trades  now cannot lose, if price gets back near the top again we may be tempted to load up with more. (Tomorrow) 

Update 18th Jan overnight action..  

Today the idiots have opened the stop losses out again to 15 pips each, just above yesterdays highs, total account risk now 15x35x2 - $1050  or < 1%

Update S&P trade also hit TP1 = +$1200 or 1.2ish% - Stops to breakeven with 15 contracts S&P and 35 Dow still live.Total Account Risk Now $525 (0.5%)

Update now 2 hours before Market Close 

Usually idiots don't close out of pre-planned strategy trades or the numbers go all wrong, but there are a few exceptions to this, primarily news, and at the end of the week, as if the market closes and you are still in positions, market makers can gap the price up/down, straight past your stoploss and help themselves to your account. So as its nearing end of week trading we were considering whether to get out or not (we did, see pic)

"A scratch trade" pushes over 10% on the week :)

This could reverse and run back into profit, but it could also get stopped, its 50/50 at this time of the day and the week, so we closed out the 35 Dow contracts at 14 points and the remaining 15 S&P x 3(30) points.

+$490 + $450. Peanuts, hardly worth the time and effort.

Except, ... from the previous post :)
"Trading account now at $109110" - banked, non returnable and still with trades in positive open float"
Which is now +$490 + $450 = $110,050 or +10.05% banked & secure in 1 week

Hahahahahahahahahahaha.  Did we really just miss outperforming an entire 2012 years balanced portfolio growth in week 2 of trading? Heh. Oh yes. You fools can kiss our idiotic asses.  

So we might take a week or two off, go skiing, lay on a beach, or we might come back and try to do it all over again next week.. ;) 

Week 3 - 21-01-2012 

This week four idiots will be trading the ETF along with their own activities, with trades in S&P/DOW, gold & silver if all goes to plan.  They have been targeted with a 5% week each. Watch this space. 

The equities vigilantes are quick off the mark tonight, entries taken at 

  • S & P Short 37 contracts at 1485.4
  • DOW Short 36 contracts at 13649 
30 point stops, risk per trade 1% (total risk 2%)

Update 21-01-2013

Both trades edged into profit overnight, but Idiots were hoping for a clearer pull away from this level, and so although both were initiated with a 30 pt stop, this morning this has been moved down to 15pts per trade = 1% account total risk @ 36/37 contracts.

If the market is going to run back up first Idiots would rather take a smaller hit and re-enter heavy. There are further updates and pics of how idiots are viewing "economic fundamentals" in the post here. 

A couple of idiots have only just realized that US markets are shut today. Doh. So idiots have 2 options, hold it anyway, or scratch the trades, so were looking at bigger timeframes again.

As a quick tally of open points currently (36 x 15)+(37 x 8) = $540+ $296 = +$836
Which, when added to $110,050 = $110,886 ie, +10.88% - outperforming Turner's 2012 balanced portfolio figure of 10.71% (revised).. as you can probably imagine, the temptation to scratch is strong.. :)

But no, lets let the risk management maths play out, and if we need to take a few losses before the next wins, like sales, lets get them over and done with and onto the wins. ..Got to give the fools some sort of chance, dont we? although in actual fact, when pitted against the majority of successful idiots, fools literally have no hope

Update 21-Jan-2013- S&P Stopped out - $555

Account Total = $110050 - $555 = $109495 or +9.49% with DOW still in play

One of the idiots in particular is now coming under increasing pressure about the decision to not just scratch and go down the pub at 10.88%. 

Update 21 Jan 2013 Stopped Dow -$540

Account Total = $109495 - $540 = $108955 or + 8.95% 

We will do the loss analysis tomorrow with the benefit of hindsight and may well pile back in later on yet anyway

Update 22-Jan 2013 

Once more with the Antipodean brigade on duty for Asian trading, the gallant idiots have mounted up and and are charging headlong into battle with fools.
  • S&P Short 1487.4  - 37 contracts x 20 pt stop
  • DOW Short 13660  - 50 contracts x 15 pt stop

Update 22-Jan 2013 European Start

At shift handover this morning the Asia Pacific crew have done a good job and although another stop run got close to us, this time the idiots seem to have possibly scraped through the first hostile encounter, lets see what the day brings.

Update TP1 S&P & DOW

S&P 25 contracts removed x 6 (60) pts = +$1500 or 1.4% and 12 contracts still in play

Dow 35 contracts removed x 60 points =  +$2100 or 2.0% and 15 contracts still in play

Remaining stop losses at breakeven, no risk of loss, still 27 contracts short

AT_ETF Total  $108955 + $1500 + $2100 = $112555 or + 12.55%   : ) 

Remaining open float currently = 27x60 (ish) = +$1600ish (not closed /banked)

Update 22nd Jan - Stopped out of remaining S&P and Dow shorts at zero

Update  23-Jan 2013    Yet again, idiots joust with terminators and fools. (somebody told them patience, determination, tenacity and a good sense of humor was required)
  • S&P Short 1494.4  - 56 contracts x 30 pt stop  -  risk 1.5% per trade 
  • DOW Short 13753  - 56 contracts x 30 pt stop -  risk 1.5% per trade 

Update 23-Jan 2012 -  Overnight they have drifted downwards, and at 30 points clear on S&P stop loss moved to breakeven. Stop still set at 30 pts on DOW total risk =1.5%

Update 23 Jan 2013 S&P TP1  40 contracts removed at 50 pts = +$2000 
AT_ETF total  $112555 +$2000 = $114555 or +14.55%  in 2 weeks.

Idiots still short 16 contracts on S&P (no risk) and 56 Dow @ 1.5% risk

Worst case scenario DOW stopout gives +0.5% for the day (banked)

There is a whole update post with idiotic commentary as the trade play out through the day if anybody is interested here The Idiots and the Stupids so here's just the money shot.

Update - worst case scenario DOW stopped

AT_ETF total  $114555 - $1680 =$112875 or +12.87%

And back in immediately..  this might turn out to have been a bit hasty, we will see..
  • S & P Short 1495.1  - 160 contracts x 7 pip stop  - 1% risk
  • DOW Short 13783  -  160 contracts x 7 pip  stop - 1% risk
let battle commence you f'in idiots..

Bwahahahaha update, as fast as we could get the stops on and screenshot done it reversed :)

Updates coming thick and fast.. S&P TP1  40pts x 150 contracts = +$6000 
AT_ETF Now $112875 + $6000 = $118875 or +18.75%
Stops to breakeven on Dow & remaining S&P  RISK FREE TRADES 170 contracts total short. 

Eat our f'in shorts will you?  :)  

UPDATE: 24-Jan (answer, yes, again DOW stopped @ breakeven
looking for re-entries..

As its only the DOW setting up here idiots are going to try it again, witzh a 6pt stop and 195 contracts for 1% account risk, that seems like a high risk reward..
  • Short DOW 13784 x 195 contracts x 6 pt stop - 1% account risk

Update: Stopped out -$1170
AT_ETF  $118875 - $1170 $117705  or + 17.7% 

Update back in, you cant keep a good idiot down..

  • Short DOW @ 13790 x 195 contracts x 3pt stop - Risk 0.5%

Update - stopped on all contracts at breakeven
Also took a 1% (-$1180) loss as below, over too quick to chart

$117705-$1180=+$116525 or +16.52%

New entries as below
  • Short DOW 13866 - 85 contracts at 20 pip stop = 1.5% risk
  • Short S & P 1501.1 - 85 contracts at 20 pip stop = 1.5% risk

Update S&P TP1 70 contracts x 50 pts = +$3500
AT_ETF  $116525 +$3500 = $120025 or +20.02% 
(should we say it again? :) Stops to breakeven - Risk Free trading from the idiots once more

Update DOW TP1 70 contracts x 50 pts = +$3500
AT_ETF  $120025 + $3500 = $123525 or +23.52% 

Update 25th Jan 2013
Remaining 15 contracts on DOW stopped at breakeven. thinking about reloading once more..
Update - back, might be too early, we shall see
  • Short DOW @ 13871  61 contracts at 20pts = 1% risk

Update - (Yesterday's)  Final 15 S&P contracts stopped at breakeven 
This below is basically the idiots regular bet.. only that the Market will bank the money of fools

( in shall the idiots kick the granny out of it with high leverage for their daily cheek)

Update MORE TRADING: Adding to shorts at high leverage and tight stops 
  • Short S&P 1502.1  - 100 contracts 10pt stop <1% risk
  • Short DOW 13882 - 135 contracts 9pt stop 1% risk
Total account risk with previous DOW short still in play approx 3%

Update S&P TP1 20 pts x 80 contracts = +$1600

AT_ETF  $123525 + $1600 = $125125 or +25.1% 

Still short 20 S&P and 196 DOW :) @ 2% account risk

Update DOW TP1 20pts x 100 contracts = +$2000
AT_ETF  $125125 +$2000 = $127125 or +27.1% 

Still short 20 S&P and 96 DOW @ 1% account risk

Update Remaining 20 S&P stopped at breakeven. To. The. Pip.
96 DOW @ 1% risk still in play

Update DOW TP2 35 contracts x 40 pts = +$1400

AT_ETF  $127125 +$1400 =$128525 or +28.52% 

Still short Original 61 DOW @ 1% account risk

Update 25-Jan 2013 - Read it and weep fools ;)
- This is probably the final Update in here now.Dow trade scratched at +$366 (6pts) rather than maybe take a 1% loss

AT_ETF $128525  +$366 = 128891 or +28.89% 



Well we certainly had a laugh :) but now is time to go off and beat the granny out of Equities too along with our more normal daily activities, as who could have known just how easy it is to extract money from fools here? 

Certainly not us idiots, or we'd have been doing it for years.  So the idiots hope anybody taking the time to look carefully at our trading nonsense for the last two weeks can see that some idiots have a somewhat better grasp of how it all works than Mr Turner does. 

Because whilst Mr Turner is advising people, only today that Equities are fine to be bought at the top, "as long as they're part of a balanced portfolio" (LOL!) the idiots would like anybody tempted, to consider our display of how the market, and occasionally even some idiots, are taking money out of your foolish worlds, every day.

The idiots only wanted to do the trading part of the site to maybe add a little more credibility to their other idiotic viewpoints if possible, and do hope some people have found our idiotic take on things amusing, if not interesting at times. 

Ok, idiot traders bowing out now, thank you, and goodnight. 

29-Jan 2013 - Week 4 

The Anti_Turner Idiots Traders were live trading this system today, as below..

Mr Turner, the idiots salute you. 

NB apologies if the idiots actually took anybody's money for real today, its not personal, you're just the opposition, andthe idiots have been trying to warn you.

Idiots aren't generally all that big on predictions about the future, but there is one that they would make and stick by, and that is that in the (comparatively well informed) opinion of a bunch of idiots:

The majority of you can never win this game.

Idiots cant talk about their own figures in detail, but will apply this series of trades to the ETF at the same risk:reward as real idiots were using live..
  • Trade 1  - 2% risk (of $128891) @ 30 pip stop = 85 contracts 
  • Trade 2  - 2% risk (of $128891) @ 30 pip stop = 85 contracts 
Trade 1 Win: S&P TP1 60 pts x 85 contracts = +$5100  ETF Total = $133991 
Trade 2 stopped at breakeven and "grannied" from 1pt higher)

  • Trade 3 S&P - 1.5% risk  (of $133991) @ 11pip stop = 182 contracts
  • Trade 4 DOW - 1.5% risk of $133991 @ 6 pip stop  = 330 contracts

Trade 3: Win: TP1 DOW 20 pts x 300 contracts = $6000 ETF Total $139991

Trade 4: Win TP1 S&P  20pts x 160 contracts = $3200 

ETF Total   $143991 or +43.99% IN ONE MONTH

With 52 contracts total still short stops at breakeven ie NO RISK

What a phenomenal bunch of f'in idiots

One of these days its not coming back up..

31 Jan 2013.. End of Month 1 

On week commencing 21st Jan  (above) the ETF traders were planning on trading (maybe) gold and definitely silver in the ETF, however the trades we were waiting for did not set up that week, but did on Monday this week and were taken for real by a bunch of idiots. 

The trade full sequence is shown below, and although in real life the idiots are looking for a longer run, for the sake of the ETF as the TP1 (take profit) was hit yesterday the idiots have applied the figures at correct risk:reward ratios to the ETF account as below. 

As the silver trades are quite reliable, these idiots generally take them at 3-5% risk levels in real life, and as the ETF is up +43.99% in month 1, in this instance the idiots would have been happy to potentially give back the 3.99% if it went wrong, so figures applied at 4% risk.

$143991 x 4% = means we can risk $5750 loss @15 pt stp = 38k Oz, so lets round up to 40k Oz. 
@ TP1 $31.80 half position off = 100pts ( $1 ) x 20k Oz =  +$20,000

ETF Total Now $163991 or +63.99% in one month

with approx another $22k in Open (unbanked) float at $32.xx. 

Stay tuned for Turner vs #Silver #Idiots #2013
Can ONE (remaining) 20k Oz long trade on 28th January whoop another three year's  balanced portfolio growth in #2013 all on it's own? :)

Update Jan 29th Trade into Profit..

More thoroughly  idiotic silver market commentary about the setting up of these trades here 

01 Feb 2013 End of Week 4
And finally a Friday round up of the week's real idiot silver Action 

Some of the real idiots silver trades hit trailing stops on the remainder (01-31) at $31.71 (91pts) 
For the sake of the ETF idiots will remain in, 20k long from  $30.80 stop at breakeven.
In real life idiots were back in again on Jan 31st @$31.27 with #Granny firmly in tow.

Idiots think if you haven't got the idea by now, you're probably destined to remain a fool..

1 comment:

  1. wow, that's a lot of work, and quite mean spirited too. Sounds like a personal vendetta.