Wednesday, January 23, 2013

The Idiots and the Stupids

In pictures, for those who aren't so good with words..

Of course this isn't failsafe, the terminators might decide that today its more profitable to go up and take out us idiots first (if there are more of us) before coming back for the idiot buyers later, but betting against the people buying at the top is usually a workable probability bet over time, and especially at high risk:reward ratios.

This post will be updated with the outcome (of the trade) anyway of course

hahahaha er, sorry, Update 23 Jan 2013 S&P TP1  40 contracts removed at 50 pts = +$2000 
AT_ETF total  $112555 +$2000 = $114555 or +14.55%  in 2 weeks.

Idiots still short 16 contracts on S&P (no risk) and 56 Dow @ 1.5% risk

Worst case scenario DOW stopout gives +0.5% for the day (banked)

Now if we could just afford us our very own Terminator...

AT_ETF total  $114555 - $1680 =$112875 or +12.87%

So today, yes the idiots had to settle for a mere half a percent (ish, less in fact) up at the end of these two trades. Literal peanuts. But lets put that in perspective. Imagine you could only manage to do that, twice a week.  That's 4% per month, or 48% per year if you immediately extract all winnings and stay at the same position sizes forever. 

However most idiots stay at the same risk reward figures and use larger positions as the account grows.  Using this method, if you can just manage a consistent steady 1% per week forever, the account size will grow parabolically...   hmm..?  :)  ..anyone wondering if the idiots might have some clue what they're talking about yet?  ;)

UPDATE: Just posted in the ETF page , what an end to the day...  remember we were thinking about reloading heavy with tight stops above? heh heh..

..and back in immediately..  this might turn out to have been a bit hasty, we will see..
  • S & P Short 1495.1  - 160 contracts x 7 pip stop  - 1% risk
  • DOW Short 13783  -  160 contracts x 7 pip  stop - 1% risk
let battle commence you f'in idiots..

Bwahahahaha update, as fast as we could get the stops on screenshot done and a cup of tea, it reversed :)

Updates coming thick and fast.. S&P TP1  40pts x 150 contracts = +$6000 

AT_ETF Now $112875 + $6000 = $118875 or +18.87% Stops to breakeven on Dow & remaining S&P 
 RISK FREE TRADES 170 contracts total short.  Eat our f'in shorts will you?  :)  

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