Tuesday, January 15, 2013

AT ETF Trade 2 - Win

So overnight yesterday's Anti-Turner Trade 2 of 2013 hit TP1 (take profit) for 6 S&P points (equivalent of 60 Dow). 

With this trade, we (like any average trader) would place the stops just above the previous highs, at 3 S&P (30 equiv) points, and immediately bank a tranche of the position on hitting the minimum 2:1 ratio using an automatic TP order. Assuming a 2% loss risk on the account, a 3(30) point stop would allow 66 contracts short, and at the 2:1 TP1 we remove 36 of them. 
  • Banked profit is now 36 x 6 (60) points = $2160 or +2.1% on the account. 
  • Remaining risk is 30 contracts at -30 point stop = $-900 
  • Worst case scenario now $102,160 - $900 = $101260 or + 1.26% on the account
  • Best case scenario = 30 contracts x ? =  $$$)

So, even if the worst case scenario plays out and we go back higher yet again, idiot traders could now take the rest of 2013 off and still have outperformed a "balanced portfolio" over the whole of 2011 with zero market risk from now until re-engagement. More risk-averse idiots might also lower the stop on the remaining 30 contracts to breakeven to lock in the minimum +2.1%, but the idiots actually in charge wouldnt want to risk being unnecessarily stopped out before the big plunge, as potential gain is a LOT more than $900.  Risk:Reward still extremely good at this point.

This is a good example of idiot day traders "courting short term risk" in action.  

How people who are in permanently long positions and subject to every market move delude themselves they have "risk" covered, remains a bit of a mystery to a bunch of idiots around here.

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