Saturday, January 26, 2013

Will He Never Learn?

Intelligence suggests that Mr Turner has probably seen this blog, although as it on blogspot its difficult to be certain. 

Then again, maybe not yet, as this is actually quite unbelievable, given Turner's 100% perfect record of always being wrong on stocks calls, from the 1987 crash where he said "stay out" at the very bottom,  through the tech bubble (Nortel)  through the Mutual Funds sales years, and DOW 30k call in 1999the crash of 2002, again in 2006, you would really think he would know better than to be advising people to buy into the S&P at just about the top of the range, once more..
On Thursday, while Apple stock was being slaughtered, most major US stock markets went up. In fact the S&P 500 is ahead 4.81% in the last three weeks, and 13.7% in the past year. It’s at a level last seen five years ago, and 4% below its all-time peak. The Dow is even closer, dangling just 2% under its best-ever showing in the autumn of 2007. 
Uh huh. Is he really saying what these idiots think he's saying? He wants to buy at the top again, doesn't he? As reasonably skilled short-side trading idiots, the data he presents above is tantalizing to us, and of course we will need buyers to mug sell to at the very top :)
This advance has come because of corporate profits and economic growth. Of companies reporting Q4 earnings, like Google and IBM, 73% of them have beat expectations. The latest jobless claims numbers shocked because they were so positive, dropping to a five-year low. In Washington the debt ceiling debate’s turned into the non-event it was always destined to be. In China, manufacturing is growing at the fastest rate in two years. American real estate has bounced off the bottom three years sooner than expected with almost all major markets showing higher sales, rising prices and surging construction. Unemployment across the US is now lower than it is in Toronto, and people in Chicago or Boston can actually afford to buy detached houses in a major city.  
This advance has actually come from  trillions in excess reserves the banks are holding rehypothecating and gambling in derivatives, and surging liquidity from never-ending and parabolically accelerating stimulus.

Only a fool could believe there is a recovery based on fundamentals and try to convince others his plan is the bestest plan once more
In short, smart people want to own this growth.
In short, however would Turner know what "smart" people want ? 
It’s what I told you to expect a year ago when I sent the metalheads, doomers and Depends set into gales of laughter with my ‘don’t bet against America’ routine. Despite its debt and deficit challenges, the US will only augment each month in terms of GDP, jobs created, corporate profits and consumer spending. There will certainly be volatility for investors, but the road ahead seems clear.
Quick question, are these "guaranteed predictions" like in 2006, we wonder as he said that then too, and could not really have been more wrong. 
..A vibrant energy sector, with a pivotal election behind it, and with a strengthening American economy, our financial markets will build on the success of last year, and head straight into uncharted territory.  Garth Turner Jan 2006

When challenged by almost certainly the most intelligent of the blog dogs: 

#29 Canadian Watchdog on 01.24.13 at 10:12 pm
Buy S&P right here right? Once, twice… you know the rest, unless you believe it really is different this time again.
As part of a diversified portfolio, absolutely. — Garth

And here we have it, the whole purpose of the post, the pumping of the "balanced portfolio" :)

#39 AK on 01.24.13 at 10:28 pm
#28 Canadian Watchdog on 01.24.13 at 10:12 pm
“Buy S&P right here right? Once, twice… you know the rest, unless you believe it really is different this time again.”
The S&P 500 today is cheaper than it was back in 2007.
Buying and holding only succeeds with continual rebalancing. In the case of the S&P, this has yielded very substantial gains over this period of time. — Garth
With of course, the magical mystical secret to wealth, that only Turner knows, "Rebalancing"  or "trading" as it's known by everyone else.  

With his highly tuned "re-balancing" skills, what could possibly go wrong?  

Continual rebalancing as well now, maybe he could give the idiots a lesson or two in "contrarian trading"  (idiotsLMFAO) !!!!! 

#70 Canadian Watchdog on 01.24.13 at 11:20 pm
#39 AK
The S&P 500 today is cheaper than it was back in 2007.
And ten times more fragile, more concentrated and dominated by high-frequency traders that will suck your profits in nanoseconds when the time comes.
You said that last year. — Garth

Because a year is such a long time, he couldn't possibly have been right all that time ago, could he?  It gives us idiots great pleasure to know Turner is still firmly long at the top, as some of the money we extract from fools might actually be from his balanced diversified portfolios :) 

This is the ONLY equities idiots care about, because ask yourself, where did this money come from?

Note error on chart label, figures are end of trade round ups, not end of day strictly, although most were.

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