Monday, January 21, 2013

Why Idiots Love Oil

Pure Idiocy in action. 

A tiny bet on a mere 100 barrels of oil (micro account size) at the regular (since 2008 onwards anyway) idiot's fill up point (lower green line) and cashed out on the longterm trendline would net +$2000 profit  in about 5 weeks, for $200 risk (say $2 stop loss)  Risk : reward 10:1 

Hit them with 1000 barrels and it's a +$20,000 TRADE - How often do you have to win with risk:reward at 10:1 to get rich again?  Unfortunately these setups take weeks and months, and occasionally years to arrive, so idiots have to be content spending winnings from the last one for a while sometimes. 

The chart below also shows why idiots are pretty confident in their longer term views, and why what has been working doesn't look like changing any time soon to these idiots.

Is everybody aware that:

No one knows precisely at what point oil begins to substantially hinder consumer spending and slow commercial activity - but this much is known: every $1 per barrel rise in oil decreases U.S. GDP by about $100 billion per year and every 1 cent increase in gasoline decreases U.S. consumer disposable income by about $600 million per year. ?

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