Saturday, January 26, 2013

Week 3 Trading Round Up

 (Account size 100%)
A suitable target would be +10-20% of the account size from this call over the next few weeks..

25th Jan 2013  Account size: $128891 or +28.89% 

As with last week the statistical analysis idiots always want to pore over how it could have been better, although their adjustments to TP levels from last weeks stats didn't seem to hurt too much so the rest of the idiots tolerate their nonsense.

Week 3 trade stats compared to last weeks (in)

Trades taken: 16  - each trade has three potential profit levels, or can be stopped out at breakeven or a loss

  • Trade + TP1:      8   (4)
  • Trade + TP2:      1   (1)
  • Trade + TP3:      0  
  • Stopped (even): 8 - every single one of these was in profit, & gave it back holding out for more
  • Stopped (loss):   5 
  • Max total risk at any one time  3%. (4%)   Usual risk 2-3% (1-2%)
  • Account +/-  +18.84%   (10.05%)   (+87%!! - do we get a bonus?)
  • Total trades win rate: 8 / 16 or 50%   (57%) 
  • Total (tranche) win rate 9 / 48 possible tranche wins = 18.75%  (23.8%)
  • Max Risk / Real win ratio:  18.84 / 3  =  6.28 : 1  (2.53:1)
Nobody can be arsed to go through a blow-by-blow account, its all in the ETF, but  in summary we had 8 of 16 trades hit TP1, one of them went on to hit TP2, five losses, and multiple part tranches come back and get stopped out at zero. (again) 

Did the floor fall out from under our shorts this week? No. Did we even more methodically bank money than last week, whilst waiting for a/the big win?  

And what's going on here then? ..Won only 50% instead of last weeks 57%, yet banked 87% more? 
What kind of witchcraft is this? :)  
Welcome to the world of trading risk management analysis and optimization by those who do know what they are talking about. A higher activity rate whilst systematically tuning the plan to fit the range of the market better, means idiots can tighten stop-losses with more confidence, thereby increasing position size, while maintaining the same absolute risk, and hugely increasing risk:reward. 

Tuning TPs to extract a higher percentage of cash from the winners, and increasing confidence in setups as idiots get to know the market better (two weeks LOL!) helped too. 

This week meant less wins, more losses, and way better money.

Idiots still gave back plenty of potential money at zero at times, and took 5% total losses in a series of separate 1% ish hits, but this week it is easier to see how idiots intend the bigger scheme to play out.  The point is, idiots are not scared of losses, as they are limited, and required in the maths. 

If next week when idiots are doing this live, the market turns and a few of these yellow "stopped at zeros" suddenly become TP3s and  2-300 point runners, idiots might even send a thank you present to Turner.  

If it does not, does anybody really doubt the idiots are happy to just plod away taking money directly out fools bank accounts until it does?  

If the AT_ETF had started trading with a $1 million client on Jan 1st 2013, said client would now be +$288910 up, banked and secure, RISK FREE. 

Maybe some can now possibly start to see why Turner's (utterly clueless about actual risk) comments about daytraders being idiots and "courting risk" irked and motivated these idiots into action. 

Here's the equity curve plotted, this is the ONLY equities idiots are interested in, because ask yourself, where did this money come from?


  1. it looks like you give back too much money all the time, why don't you take the positions all off at profit target 1 and be done with it?

  2. looking at just those two weeks results you are absolutely correct, but over a longer period catching a few of the longer-running big wins usually pays more. obviously you have to be facing the direction of the intermediate trend for those to happen.