Sunday, December 30, 2012

The Unbelievable Arrogance of Garth Turner's Continually Wrong Predictions

If Garth Turner had ever even got a SINGLE ONE of his macro predictions (ie outside Canada) correct over the many, many years he has been making them, it might be easier to understand the unbelievable arrogance he displays in statements like these
No major western industrialized country will default in your lifetime, or that of your children. — Garth 
Rogoff & Reinhard studied 800 years of sovereign default history in "This Time It's Different" - which Turner cannot have heard of, never mind read. The empirical evidence shows that not only do major sovereigns default, but they do it regularly throughout history. 
Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. 
They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. 
While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur
Turner having been on the wrong side of and blindsided by every bubble since the black Monday crash in 1987, once again misses the dangers of the artificially propped up government bond market bubbles and now attempts to herd gullible future customers towards the danger, at exactly the wrong time  (again) because..

"This Time IS Different"  ..huh Garth?  

Having been fully onboard, pumping, (and burnt by) the:

Real Estate bubble I 1982-1987 
Tech bubble (DotCom) 1995-2000
Real Estate Bubble II  (2002-2007) 

Turner still lacks the basic and fundamental understanding of what is and what isn't an unsustainable bubble. 

This would be ok, were it not for his continual attempts to profit from the public with what will certainly be some more absolutely wrong predictions over the next decade, just like the previous decade, and the one before, and the one before that. 

No comments:

Post a Comment