Monday, December 31, 2012

Canadian Real Estate Correction Coming?

Probably, yes.  Although we broadly agree with Turner's Canadian housing outlook at this point, as the chart below shows with "investments" (as opposed to home ownership because you need somewhere to live) timing, is everything..



As you can see, anybody directly fading (taking the opposite trade) on Mr Turner's advice as per our Anti-Turner ETF trade, exactly when he said it, is sitting on a decent profit at this point and can stand a correction of up to 17% again without going underwater. 

Will the price fall more than 17% moving forwards? ..maybe, but that remains to be seen, real investors would have been selling out again at the height of the bidding wars a year ago, not sitting out for years watching price run up without knowing why,  before slowing again.. 


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