Monday, January 7, 2013

Fading Garth Turner's Financial Advice

On Saturday, we decided that Garth Turner's level of confidence in his own blatherings was decidedly overbought on the indicators, and showing a clear negative divergence with reality, and hence his latest "calls" were as good a "fade trade" as we have seen in a while, and so we announced an immediate Anti Turner ETF theoretical short, here.

As "Don't bet against America" is still contrary to what the (historically) "smart money" is doing for a decade now, this all seems to have decent odds for an average retail trader to profit more directly from Turner, without having to pay him anything or risk having your money "managed" elsewhere. Although it should be noted the laws of mathematics require that as time progresses, the probability of Turner getting one right eventually, at the right time, must increase. 

After all how many times can anybody actually throw all "Tails" in a row?

Extra rationale for taking the trade: As the markets gapped up considerably on open (450 points on Dow) most amateur day traders would be expecting a "gapfill" retracement, at the very least. There are also ominous looking technical signals that even the most amateur day trader would know, ie "Head & Shoulders" appearing on intermediate and larger timeframes 

And of course, with the entire retail herd fully long, and margined at record (pain) levels, the Market now looks well primed to take all their money, judging by their historical accuracy rates of (the dumb money) being faced in the right direction, as shown below.

If this scenario does play out, there could easily be a further push up before it rolls over, but if Turner's accuracy is still as good as ever, maybe not. If these markets do not make new all time highs (ie higher than 2000 and 2007) fairly quickly, there is almost certainly a potentially big slide down coming first.

We also think that the phrase "Dont bet against America" has decent odds of ending up as a marketing slogan on a forthcoming US Tour, ...wonder what odds Intrade would give us on that...

All Anti-Turner ETF trades and updates can be found here

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