Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Garth's Future Cringe Material

#120 skeptical on 01.08.13 at 11:57 am

#112 Willy2 on 01.08.13 at 10:49 am
And no, that’s NOT the result of rising inflation (we’re moving to DEFLATION, again) but a fear of the US defaulting on its debts. (That’s the ULTIMATE deflation).
__________________________________
the US will not default on it’s debt. it will keep printing more money out of thing air, as much as it wants.
What does ‘thin air’ mean? All currency is backed by the world’s largest economy, worth $16 trillion, plus the power to tax. There is no greater security on this earth. — Garth


#136 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 01.08.13 at 1:03 pm
30%CORRECTION IN THE STOCK MARKET COMING !
Quote:
“The bull market in U.S. equities that began in 2009 may end this year, followed by a drop of as much as 30 percent in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by next year, according to technical analysts at UBS AG. ”
“A “cyclical” bear market will then follow, with the gauge dropping as low as 1,100 by 2014.”
So don’t worry about house prices falling when equity price falls will far exceed that.
Do you believe everything you read from people with a vested interest in volatility? — Garth

[Sniff of potential customer in comments - real estate is OK for this one - can one of you Canadians track this real estate call over the next few years please]

#88 Hey Jude on 01.08.13 at 3:16 am
Hi Garth I am a new reader to your blog and I love it. We sold our house 5 years ago and have been renting. My husband retires in June 2013 and we are now ready to possibly relocate to Moncton, New Brunswick and settle quietly into retirement. Housing is already a real deal there.
Garth could you possibly comment on your thoughts of us buying a home this year and retirement in Moncton.
Thanks for your time.
Jude
A brilliant move. The Maritimes are the new BC for retirement – friendly, temperate climate and you and eliminate a zero from house prices. But I prefer the South Shore of NS. They have palm trees. — Garth
Did anybody else think that realtor-speak came a little too easy there, or what?


#23 Smoking Man on 01.08.13 at 11:06 pm
I remeber you saying that indexing is not the way to go going forward but picking certain sectors, now you’re saying that buying ETF’s that mimic the sp500 and TSX are the way to go?
i need another drink!
Not only are you a fraud, you’re wrong. — Garth

The ironymeter just detonated in the back room..

Garth Turner Knows How To Party - Apparently

Friday is supposed to be humor day really, but this is so surreal it can't wait that long, and who knows how long it might last. Enjoy :)


Garth Turner Was Right (Lulz :)


Haha, so the eagle-eyed among you will spot what we did there to cheat Google, but no, that's a bit unfair. Here's the real amount of people who have ever written that on the internet throughout human history, (minus of course multiple hits on his own site.)  


Out of trillions of pages on the internet, SEVEN.  Of those, we appear to have three incidences, and duplicates on other sites.  Of these mentions, (without reading them), it appears in Google as though two of the three things he was right about, are "talk show hosts" and political carbon tax wranglings. Then there is ONE hit based on Finance. ONE. Obviously we had to look at this, its a Youtube video, (and he wasn't at all right in that, at that time) where some dude opined in the comments..



So, it very much looks like in the whole history of the internet going global, which incidentally dates back almost as long as Turner's career, nobody, has ever sat down and written a convincing Garth Turner was right article, never mind compiling a series of interviews nailing it exactly and making everyone else look like fools for the rest of their lives when it goes viral. That's social media marketing at it's finest, in this respect Turner also has a long way to go.



For reference, lets compare to a previously very successful publicity blitz, caused by someone, you know, being right..




As you can see, the internet isn't quite as dumb as it can seem.  


Monday, January 7, 2013

Fading Garth Turner's Financial Advice

On Saturday, we decided that Garth Turner's level of confidence in his own blatherings was decidedly overbought on the indicators, and showing a clear negative divergence with reality, and hence his latest "calls" were as good a "fade trade" as we have seen in a while, and so we announced an immediate Anti Turner ETF theoretical short, here.

As "Don't bet against America" is still contrary to what the (historically) "smart money" is doing for a decade now, this all seems to have decent odds for an average retail trader to profit more directly from Turner, without having to pay him anything or risk having your money "managed" elsewhere. Although it should be noted the laws of mathematics require that as time progresses, the probability of Turner getting one right eventually, at the right time, must increase. 

After all how many times can anybody actually throw all "Tails" in a row?

Extra rationale for taking the trade: As the markets gapped up considerably on open (450 points on Dow) most amateur day traders would be expecting a "gapfill" retracement, at the very least. There are also ominous looking technical signals that even the most amateur day trader would know, ie "Head & Shoulders" appearing on intermediate and larger timeframes 





And of course, with the entire retail herd fully long, and margined at record (pain) levels, the Market now looks well primed to take all their money, judging by their historical accuracy rates of (the dumb money) being faced in the right direction, as shown below.



If this scenario does play out, there could easily be a further push up before it rolls over, but if Turner's accuracy is still as good as ever, maybe not. If these markets do not make new all time highs (ie higher than 2000 and 2007) fairly quickly, there is almost certainly a potentially big slide down coming first.

We also think that the phrase "Dont bet against America" has decent odds of ending up as a marketing slogan on a forthcoming US Tour, ...wonder what odds Intrade would give us on that...

All Anti-Turner ETF trades and updates can be found here

Saturday, January 5, 2013

The Real Reason Garth Turner Blogs?

Here's a very interesting piece on the challenges financial companies face in an era of declining response from traditional lead generation techniques. http://advisoranalyst.com/advisor/tag/garth-turner/

A new approach to prospecting

Wednesday, May 4th, 2011

Note:  First pub­lished in March 2009, this arti­cle was ranked first out of over 500 arti­cles pub­lished in 2009 by Hors​es​mouth​.com, the lead­ing online site for U.S. finan­cial advi­sors. It sets out some new think­ing on what it takes to attract new clients today – and is just as rel­e­vant in Jan­u­ary 2010 as it was in March of last year. 
Recent con­ver­sa­tions with investors and advi­sors have con­vinced me that we are in the midst of a sig­nif­i­cant shift in our busi­ness when it comes to attract­ing new clients – some­thing that will lead to the death of mass prospect­ing as we’ve his­tor­i­cally known it.
As an aside, this has lit­tle to do with the mar­ket decline of 2008 – and every­thing to do with the real­ity of a much more informed and skep­ti­cal con­sumer than in the past.
The last twenty years has seen a steady and pre­cip­i­tous decline in the response rates to all the tra­di­tional forms of mass prospect­ing. As a result, we are in the midst of a dra­matic – and in my view per­ma­nent – shift in what it will take to attract new clients going for­ward. 
The essence of this change is that the tra­di­tional divide between com­mu­ni­ca­tion to clients and com­mu­ni­ca­tion to prospects will dis­ap­pear – and advi­sors will have to start treat­ing prospects like clients from the moment they start talk­ing to them.
The past As recently as the six­ties, the 10−3−1 rule still pre­vailed in the insur­ance indus­try – if you spoke to 10 prospects, you got three appoint­ments and had a high like­li­hood of mak­ing at least one sale.
In the late eight­ies, mail drops offer­ing free research reports gar­nered return rates of 10% to 15% — if you mailed out 500 let­ters offer­ing a research report, you could expect 50 to 75 responses.
In the mid nineties, hotel rooms across Canada were packed with prospects attracted by news­pa­per ads offer­ing free sem­i­nars fea­tur­ing media celebri­ties such as Brian Costello, Jerry White and Garth Turner. Many advi­sors built their busi­nesses based on the turnout to those seminars. 
In the words of cult nov­el­ist S.E. Hin­ton, “that was then … this is now.”
The present
Even before the mar­ket events of last year, response rates to mass mar­ket­ing of all forms had seen a dra­matic decline.   A con­ver­sa­tion last spring with a Toronto advi­sor from one of the bank owned bro­ker­age firms drove this home. 
The future
My con­clu­sions are sim­ple: Every form of prospect­ing has always ulti­mately been a num­bers game — and always will be. That is true of focus­ing on refer­rals just as it is of mass adver­tis­ing.   The big change is in what those num­bers look like — the return on high trust activ­i­ties such as refer­rals has been sta­ble and in some cases improved, while the num­bers on mass prospect­ing have plummeted.
The bot­tom line: Drop­ping response rates will make the eco­nom­ics of mass prospect­ing less and less attractive.
One impor­tant impli­ca­tion of this is that the tra­di­tional divide between com­mu­ni­ca­tion to clients and com­mu­ni­ca­tion to prospects will disappear.
Given the grow­ing level of skep­ti­cism on the part of the invest­ing pub­lic, the most com­pelling com­mu­ni­ca­tion to prospects will not relate to prospect­ing break­fasts, lunches, din­ners and work­shops. It will not fea­ture spe­cial offers adver­tised in the paper or offered via direct mail. Nor will it focus on cold calls to busi­ness own­ers, offer­ing a second opin­ion on their situation.
It’s not that these approaches can’t work — any­thing within rea­son will work if you do enough of it. The prob­lem is that the response rate to any­thing that investors see as a “sales pitch” is already low and will only decline fur­ther. (Note that there is an excep­tion to declin­ing response rates if an advi­sor has built vis­i­bil­ity and cred­i­bil­ity in the prospect pop­u­la­tions he or she is targeting.
So if mass prospect­ing won’t work, what will?
The answer relates to the response when you ask investors who select a new advi­sor what the key fac­tor in their deci­sion was. 
The answer:  “I felt I could trust this advisor.”
That’s why high trust approaches based on refer­rals con­sis­tently show up as the most effec­tive prospect­ing approaches. Whether it be refer­rals from clients, pro­fes­sion­als or other parts of the finan­cial insti­tu­tion you work for, the rea­son refer­rals work is that they’re fun­da­men­tally a trans­fer of the trust that some­one has in you to a friend, col­league or client they work with. (And the more assets some­one has, the more crit­i­cal refer­rals tend to be.)
That’s why focused effort to become the trusted “advi­sor of choice” against a defined tar­get com­mu­nity will con­tinue to yield results.  (With­out push­ing this par­al­lel too far, this is why Bernie Madoff’s got so many of his assets from retired Jew­ish busi­ness­men in New York, Florida and South­ern Cal­i­for­nia — he built a posi­tion as the trusted, go to resource for this com­mu­nity and was the ben­e­fi­ciary of word of mouth among that group.)
Merg­ing client and prospect communication
And that’s why going for­ward suc­cess­ful advi­sors will not have sep­a­rate streams of com­mu­ni­ca­tion for prospects and clients, but will instead inte­grate the com­mu­ni­ca­tion to clients and prospects.
Rather than telling prospects that you’d like to send them an infor­ma­tion pack­age on your ser­vices, advi­sors will say: “I’d like to put you on the dis­tri­b­u­tion list for the mate­r­ial I send my clients, so that you can get the sense of the kind of com­mu­ni­ca­tion my clients receive.”
Rather than spend­ing money on brochures and audio and video busi­ness cards, advi­sors will focus on build­ing client friendly web­sites, packed with use­ful infor­ma­tion and resources for clients — and then invite prospects to browse their site, giv­ing them a sense of what life as a client would be like.
And rather than invit­ing prospects to spe­cial work­shops or lunches for prospec­tive clients (and have these prospects with their defenses up, wait­ing for the sales pitch), advi­sors will say: “I run a reg­u­lar series of sand­wich lunches in my board­room for inter­ested clients, talk­ing about what’s hap­pen­ing in mar­kets. If you’re inter­ested in sit­ting in, I’d be happy to have you join us.” 
Financial lead generation techniques have moved into the digital age; witness www.greaterfool.ca and its fawning but mostly clueless readership, and follow up "free" nationwide tours, ..it's where it's at in the 201x's



What Garth Turner Doesn't Understand

More of those incredibly arrogant predictions presented as fact. Let's dissect this line by line
While the first three business days of a year mean diddly in the scope of things, pay attention.
So why are you attempting to draw inference from it further down in your piece by claiming this is what you foresaw? Although interestingly, the first 2 days of 2013 saw better portfolio result claims did they not?
This is precisely the pattern I’ve been telling you for months to expect. Financial assets ascending. Real assets descending. Money surging from bonds to stocks. Commodities squished. And real estate taking it on the chin.
If, in two months, the debt ceiling debacle draws a further US downgrade, and stocks are down 20% again, what then? Oh yes, that's right, "Dont bet against America"  : )  We would counter that statement by saying "dont bet against Maths"  and of course the Anti -Turner ETF would naturally take opposing positions to what Turner is betting on. 
So, your bond fund lost money this week. So did your house in Vancouver. And your silver and gold. In contrast, the S&P 500 (the only US market to watch) rose 4.6% and is now at the highest level since December of 2007. The Dow added 3.8%. Even the Russell 2000, an index of small companies, surged 5.7%, to an all-time crest.
Turner, like many "observers" labors under the delusion that the stock market is an indicator of economic health, rather than the receptacle for excess liquidity driven by dark pools and predatory algorithms.

If true to historical form, he probably wants to buy at all time highs, with seemingly not the faintest idea of the macro drivers and dangers beneath, exactly the same as he has been on every single bubble he has ever "perceived" or not, as the case may be. 

So what does history tell us to do in response to  Turner's predictions? Lets run a live test, the Anti-Turner ETF hereby goes tentatively short the Dow & S&P at 13414 and 1462.90 and we will update this to reflect over the position/s over time. 
Last year the S&P added more than 13%, despite the fiscal cliff, a US election, the Israel-Hamas war, revolution in Syria, global debt worries and Justin Bieber. Why?
Last year in fact the S&P regained nominal value (to be offset against the devaluing dollar and previous losses)  for exactly the same reasons as it always has from the late 90's, and is still firmly within it's previous 10 year trading range. 



Because you should never bet against America, where unemployment continues to slowly erode, the real estate market has bounced off bottom, recession talk’s over, Obama romped to re-election and corporate profits surged 11% in the last quarter.
Turner appears to think that with interest rates stuck at the zero lower bound, at which point even the Fed's models predict "explosive inflation" after 8 or 9 quarters, and £85 billion a month in new money printing, this is actually a "recovery".    : )


Face it: there’ll not be another 2008. The world will slowly grow out of its debt morass. Bond prices will fall and yields rise. Central bank stimulus will end. Rates will eventually normalize. 
Once again, "there will not be.."  only the very stupid or the very arrogant, or some combination of both would still be making predictions like this after approaching 30 years of never seeing it coming. 

Here's some slightly different analysis, by someone with a proven track record of understanding the situation and being on the right side of the macro trends, for the right reasons over the last decade.

Sprott: “What I found most striking about it is if people really imagined that the Fed was not going to buy bonds, what should happen to interest rates? 
" What should happen to the stock market?  What should happen to the homebuilders?  What should happen to gold?"    
"The only thing that really got smashed (out of those asset categories) was gold and silver...."
“The Fed is trying to suck and blow at the same time because they are suggesting the rates are going to stay low out to 2015, unless the unemployment rate gets down.  They come out with this statement about the minutes, which means nothing because it’s not policy.”
"The Fed doesn’t want gold and silver prices to go up because it would be the indicator that we’re out of control.  I’m sure most of your listeners (and readers) know we are out of control.  The fact is we spend $4 trillion buying bonds, which is an utter joke, and we’ve accomplished nothing."
"We have a recession in Europe, we have minimal growth in the (United) States, we’ve got a recession in Japan, China is kind of kicking along, but all of the countries that have spent the money have accomplished nothing, other than to load up their central bank’s balance sheets."
Eric King:  “Going back to 2012, when the Fed was saying there would be ‘No more QE,’ of course we were coming out and saying, ‘Of course there will be more QE.’  It was strange, not that the Fed lied, but that they would come out with such a bold lie because it was so ridiculous.  Essentially they are doing the same thing here, but it’s different.  They are not coming out and saying, ‘We’re not going to do more QE.’  It’s, well, let’s just release some stuff in the minutes and it will basically look like we are going to walk away from QE.  It’s the same lie (as 2012) packaged differently isn’t it?”
Sprott:  “And they try to look like they are responsible, right?  It’s the irresponsibility of the central banks that we all have to be aware of.  And the fact that they come out with this thing in the minutes and suggest that something might happen, which we all know can’t happen, is to give them some sort of ability to say, ‘Well, we are going to take this way out.’
"It’s like the ‘Exit Plan’ as you may recall (from a few years ago).  What is the exit plan for the Fed?  Well, as you know there is no exit plan.  There never was an exit plan, and there is no exit.  And it just gets worse all the time."
"There’s not a hope in hell that the Fed will not continue to buy the bonds, because who is going to buy the bonds?  There is nobody who is going to buy the bonds.  Japan can’t buy the bonds, China can’t buy the bonds, Europe and the UK have their own problems.  There’s no one left to buy these bonds."
Turner as ever, knows better..  
This set of basic questions are also in another post but seem relevant to this one so copied across.

Mr Turner, a few questions for you to mull over in those quiet hours of self doubt you have in the middle of the night, that the idiots believe might help your limited understanding of long term macro events.

  1. Why did you not see the gold run from $1088 upwards? (+51% Jan 10 - date) ..if you could just work out the answer to that..
  2. What are negative real interest rates?  Why are they important? 
  3. What is Shadow banking?
  4. What is the future significance of open ended Fed stimulus on the USD bond markets? 
  5. What are the implications of a $4 trillion Fed balance sheet at the end of 2013?
  6. What significance does Japan's imminent negative current account have on global financial outlook?
  7. Whats significance does Japan's latest open ended commitment to money printing stimulus have?
  8. What is the significance of the Fed printing enough new money in 2013 to buy 11% of the world's above ground store of gold
  9. When the Fed owns the majority of US Govt debt, who could they ever sell to? 
  10. Why are the Chinese amassing Gold at an unprecedented rate?
  11. What is the significance of the Gold:Oil ratio, and why has it been relatively stable at around 15:1 for 40+ years?

We believe reaching a true understanding in these questions would give you a much better shot at being on the right side of a long term trend moving forwards, rather than running headlong into bursting bubbles every few years.  In the meantime, if you could let us know promptly on your blog whenever you capitulate and decide to add more gold to your diversified portfolios?

 As on that very day we will be looking to unload some


Friday, January 4, 2013

Gold & The Internet Type Too

All hail the power of deep web metasearch, for a rich new vein has been discovered, with nuggets literally just lying around down there, and mining has begun.

Obviously we agree with the opening line from this 2002 psychic episode below, but other than that have just inserted a few charts, facts and linked to various relevant contradictory statements or actions, (flip flopping back and forth like a good little retail trader) prior or since, and will let readers make up their own minds.

What Garth Turner Says About The Doom & Gloom Market!


OH NO, NOT ANOTHER DEPRESSION, July 14, 2002 
Here's a no-brainer:   
After weeks of U.S. accounting scandals making huge headlines and as stock markets grind lower, a new poll finds almost 40% of Canadians have no faith in the financial system. They think CEOs, CFOs and maybe even UFOs are lying to them. And another poll found only a quarter of people believed audited financial statements.
Of course, most Canadians wouldn't know an audit if they fell over one. Even fewer know how to read a financial statement, and about one in 100,000 of us have ever even seen a balance sheet.
Nonetheless, thanks to the media know-it-alls, we have been told that corporate executives are lying crooks out to steal the money of hapless investors. 
So, it's a quick segue to net redemptions of $ 1.1 billion from mutual funds last month, to a prediction from the stock market columnist of one of our national newspapers days ago that a bull market in hard assets, like gold and houses, is at hand.
[Turner's colleague was in fact correct. Turner, not so much.] 



Face it: Folks are in a funk. Distrust is rampant in the land. Everyone in the financial business is out to fleece someone. The great motivator for most people has turned 360 degrees in less than two years, from greed to fear. 
And there are those who are always ready to capitalize upon naked fear.
In the I 980s, a time of inflation, stock market turmoil and a massive real estate bubble, U.S. prognosticator Ravi Batra scared the juice out of a lot of people with his book, The Great Depression of 1990. He predicted real estate values would go to zero and the American government would default on its bonds, ushering in the mother of all crises. But, he was wrong. 1990 was just fine, followed by a mild recession.
A decade later, Bay Street financier Andy Sarlos published "Fear, Greed and the End of the Rainbow" in which he predicted a stock market crash akin to that which ushered in the Great Depression, which would impoverish an entire generation. Anyone who followed his advice missed one of the greatest bull markets of history.
As the last decade ended, of course, there was the Y2K with many otherwise-sensible people predicting that the entire world's financial system would be tested and probably defeated by the millennium bug. Canadian financial advisor Stephen Gadsden tried to scare a lot of people with his co-authored "Krash." Of course, no krash took place, and not even a crash.
So, it is happening again - a new batch of disaster books as the current bear market comes to its inevitable end. The current crisis flavour of the month is "Conquer the Crash," by Elliot Wave theorist Robert Prechter, who is predicting massive deflation which, a la Ravi Batra, will send stock markets tumbling at the same time it wipes out every dollar you have put into your house.
There is a simple lesson in all of this:
Make up your own mind. Right now the economic fundamentals in Canada are excellent - some of the best conditions we have had in a generation. There is no inflation, and yet a rapidly growing economy. Interest rates are low and job creation is on a roll. The government has a surplus, not a deficit, and the national debt is being paid of for the first time in generations. We're in the middle of a technological revolution as, every day, more and more people become bound together through the Internet. In short, there are serious reasons to have faith in the future, not to run screaming from it.
This may be the best time in years to invest in the stock of good companies, when it is truly at a discount.
[Source New York Times 20-July 2002  MARKETS: STOCKS & BONDS; MARKET CONTINUES FOUR-MONTH ROUT; DOW PLUNGES 390 

[whoops, not again -14.5% in one week this time]
As for hard assets like houses, there is always room in a good portfolio for real estate and I do not foresee any massive devaluation on the horizon. 
But neither do I see a sustained housing boom, thanks to demographics and the absence of inflation. 
Stocks, mutual funds and other financial assets should be held for the predictable growth they will give, while real assets play a role in giving you shelter.

The most extreme danger to investors today comes from extreme positions, which are in evidence all around us. There is no magic bullet strategy. There is no reason to have all your wealth in cash. 
There is no Depression on the horizon. In fact, rarely in the last 50 years has the world been this prosperous, or this much at peace. 
Those retreating into the perceived safety of gold, cash, bricks and mortar or Harley-Davidsons should stop reading the newspaper. 

Except this one, of course.
Garth Turner

A mere 8 months later here he is joining the tail end of the herd and all bullish on Gold as it takes out previous highs, (but of course not understanding the reasons - negative real interest rates - here's a 2002 article by someone who did understand to compare with Turner's advice in hindsight) for the start of the decade-plus long bull run, as he still does not understand to this day.


This is quite funny, eight short months earlier,
"Those retreating into the perceived safety of gold, cash, bricks and mortar or Harley-Davidsons should stop reading the newspaper." 
Now watching gold run without him and thinking it goes up because of wars and terrorism, but using that to pump something else entirely in his newspaper. No, Mr Turner, gold goes up because the (rest of the) world knows the US will print money to pay for their wars, as they have since Vietnam. 

Interestingly Turner references John Embry of Sprott Assett Management in the above article, and with a 100% correct call at the beginning.  Here is an MP3 of a John Embry interview on Jan 01 2013, compare and contrast with Turner's current predictions

Later in the article:
"And for those with the stomach for leverage, there is 100% financing available, you can even pay the money back in quarterly installments" 
To buy mining stocks. Nice. In reality it appears to us that the most extreme danger investors face today is from assuming that Garth Turner has the foggiest clue about anything to do with money, investment and timing 

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Surviving a Depression with Turner

Here's that famous psychic ability again.  A mere 4 years ago reality all looked so different.
 Surviving a Depression with Turner - source
Published on Tuesday January 13, 2009  
As in his earlier books, Turner devotes a lot of space to houses. Why not to buy now. 
[editor note - housing up 20% from this point - yet again Turner perfectly bottom ticks the market in Jan 2009 with the wrong advice]
Why to sell now and rent. How to fool potential buyers. What to buy and where if, surprisingly, you couldn't find anything to rent because everyone else read his book and decided to sell, at a loss, to raise cash to put in a safe just in case – maybe yes, maybe no – we go from recession into depression.
Funnily enough, I agree with a lot of the things Turner says about the disadvantages of buying a big house in the remote suburbs or retiring to a cottage should the price of energy soar again after the global recession. And, yes, there is a remote chance we could have a depression, or have a meteorite strike the planet. 
But he loses me completely when he makes suggestions for surviving a depression.

Turner tells us to hunker down, repay debt, save money to buy gold for the recession. 
Then he suggests following him way past suburbia into the great beyond, where you should buy an electrical generator, buy large quantities of gasoline, buy chickens to raise, buy several seasons worth of seeds to hoard in your safe and buy a gun to shoot squirrels for food.
With all this selling and buying of real estate, all this stocking up on fuel and survivalist supplies, and with all the driving around out in the boonies, you have to wonder how we'll ever slip into a depression.
Turner has, however, offered enough predictions that he will surely have something more to gloat about by the time he writes again.



Garth Turner's Mutual Fund Flip-Flopping Over the Years

Back in 1986, "One of Canada's best known financial forecasters" (and publisher of "The Survival Letter", what we wouldn't give to be able to read some of those) was warning people to "beware of mutual funds, for they have become a hot investment, and may have peaked, like Gold at $850" (1980 not when it "peaked in 2010")

Broadcast Date: April 29, 1986 - Source


How can you compare mutual funds to gold? Garth Turner says that's what people are doing in the investment marketplace, where mutual funds have become a popular commodity. "I think they have been marketed very heavily," Turner says, "and there may be a case for saying that so many people are getting into mutual funds for somewhat the same reason that people lined up to buy gold when it was at an historic high price." 
But are mutual funds a good investment? In this CBC Radio clip, Turner cautiously admits that they've historically performed well. But he also warns that when buying mutual funds, you are essentially surrendering your right to make your own investment decisions 
Interestingly, at the end of the interview Turner is warning against the silliness of borrowing money against property, to invest in the stock market or mutual funds and advising paying down mortgage debt instead. 

One should also listen very carefully to the advice about handing over your investment decisions to others, especially to funds that don't have a long track record, anything under 5 years is suspect..  oh the irony.

The 1990s brought a somewhat different approach, by 1997 he was doing (paid) guest speaking gigs at high pressure sales seminars in cahoots with mortgage lenders, advising people to do just that..

...then "Mutual Fund TV" came along shortly after
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=2813520

Company Overview

Millennium Media Television Enterprises is a television production and distribution company. The company offers six weekly shows including Investment Television, Real Estate Television, Mutual Fund Television, Board of Trade Television, Wellness Television, and Bang TV. It also provides studio and control room facilities; field services; and post-production services. Millennium Media’s programs are broadcast on carriers such as CTV, Global, Prime, CH, and digital specialty channels. Millennium Media Television Enterprises was founded in 1997 and is based in Toronto, Ontario.
Founded in 1999 - www.milleniummedia.tv
This dates from 2001 - from that well known top business directory "www.marketmycompany.com"  :)


From 2009  www.milleniummedia.tv seems to have transformed into a "TV talent agency" as Turner's fly-to-windscreen aptitude for market timing found him on the losing team once more..

And 2012 ..
"dont get me started on mutual fund salesmen"
Mr Turner cant seem to make his mind up, but to be fair, they are bastards, likely screwed him over on his commission once too often. 


Interesting..

On the 1st Jan 2013, Mr Turner's end year performance results said this.
We are always aware our main obligation to you is to preserve your capital. We pursue growth within this mandate. We are pleased to report the model portfolio described above has achieved a return   of 9.22% in 2012with the three-year average being 7.82%.

The old version is still visible in the Google cache here, but from the 2nd Jan it now said this instead.

We are always aware our main obligation to you is to preserve your capital.We pursue growth within this mandate. We are pleased to report the model portfolio described above has achieved a return of 10.71% in 2012, with the three-year average return being 8.28%. 
More importantly, $100,000 fully invested in our model on Jan. 1, 2010 has grown to $126,225.93, a 3 year compound annual return of 8.74%. 


So how does this work we wonder? ..got the maths wrong the first time or what? :)


  ..You know if it got suddenly better after 01 Jan 2013, that doesn't count right? 

We are sure there is a perfectly reasonable and entirely innocent explanation, and nothing at all dodgy going on, found some stuff he'd forgotten about or something. 

Here's a screenshot of the Jan 01 results in case anyone wants co compare and see where they found an extra 1.5% overnight on 01-01-2012.




Tuesday, January 1, 2013

"Balanced Portfolio" Trading Strategy

Hahaha..  Several things funny here.    this comment from greaterfool.ca  is unconnected to this blog.
  • Turner's market-beating   trading  "rebalancing" strategy is exposed
  • ...along with .. a 1% weighting in gold ? 
1% ?!  : )

 ...or, 99% "paper" (imaginary, subject to vaporization-without-notice-type-wealth)



#117 skeptical on 12.31.12 at 10:59 am  
(not connected to this blog) 

GARTH VADER OWNS GOLD & SILVER! ENOUGH SAID.
No silver. And all is in balance. — Garth
________________________________________
really? after telling everyone on this blog to sell all their PM holdings…
stunning. absolutely stunning.
Stunning is how thick most people are (like you) about rebalancing. A diversified portfolio contains many asset classes, held to a strict weighting. When my PMs rise over 1% (the current weighting), I sell. When they fall, I buy. Obviously I took my profits each time I told you to. Did you listen? — Garth
Also quite stunning is how rude some people are, like you Turner, given your dire performance over the years.  

What is more interesting though is his market-beating trading re-balancing techniques, as presumably everything is going up and down all the time? ..Must be a whole lot of buying and selling going on.. ?  ..and from the same post..



#205 DJB on 12.31.12 at 9:12 pm

Garth, did you come across this story this week?
So far this year, hedge funds and bond managers have struggled to show their investors gains. According to Goldman Sachs, the average hedge fund has returned only 4.6 percent this year so far, underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index by more than 7 percent. What’s worse – only 11 percent of managers were able to outperform the S&P 500.
According to the Economist, the S&P 500 has now outperformed its hedge-fund rival for ten straight years, with the exception of 2008 when both fell sharply.
So don’t buy hedge funds. — Garth

..Clearly, an ex politician, whose timing, market and business instincts have been wrong on every prediction made since 1987 can easily outperform all those professional fund managers and traders. The delusion is strong with this one..

With regards the S&P outperforming the majority of fund managers, one should be looking at what the managers who are outperforming are doing..  

Clue.. 


There was clearly a bubble top there in the 2000s (at the time, Turner was calling for Dow 30-50k)  and prospective advisees should consider very carefully his previous history of predictions on stocks and the results


From Turner's Financial Advisory Year End Results
We are always aware our main obligation to you is to preserve your capital. We pursue growth within this mandate. 
We are pleased to report the model portfolio described above has achieved a return of 9.22% in 2012, with the three-year average being 7.82%.

A straight 50:50 Gold:Silver "buy and hold" has returned a combined 7.9% appreciation (priced in $ USD) at close of trading in 2012 and a 3 year average of 21% per annum (63.5% over the 3 years) 

But most importantly of all, this was achieved with zero counterparty risk, which absolutely cannot be said for Turner's "balanced portfolios" and especially so when you factor in the implied trading risk  due to "re-balancing" on your behalf along the way.  
Being reasonably acquainted with the whole trading  rebalancing thing, these idiots are under the firm impression that the more re-balancing that is done on your behalf by Mr Turner, the greater your risk.


Mr Turner also carefully avoids the fact that in 2011 his Balanced Portfolio returned a negative figure and could of course do the same any year, whether under constant "re-balancing" or not.