Sunday, December 30, 2012

Garth Turners Financial Advice in January 2010

Hahaha ok, so the comment abuse from offended "blogdogs" has started already. We do promise to read them all and will definitely publish anything vaguely intelligent or humorous, if you can manage both, you're in. The theme of the first few has been "why are we picking on predictions from so far back?"  "..more recently he has been more correct, than not..."  ..sort of nonsense, so to be entirely fair, we'll have a closer look at  more recent history.  




This infomercial is promoting his new book "Money Road" in January 2010 - we got about halfway through part 2 of the 3 videos transcribing quotes, before it all got too Canadian and bored us to sleep, quotes below, our comments and the historically correct recommended trades the Anti-Turner ETF would take.
"The thesis of book is that the next number of years will not be normal, the recession did not just vaporize..  we're in very unchartered territory, theres the real estate bubble,  interest rates are going up, taxes are going up.."  
"we're at the top of a number of cycles, the top of the commodity cycle, commodities like gold are probably close to the peak.  
[Anti-Turner ETF trade - long the commodity index, extra long Gold] 
"I see oil going to $200 a barrel.."
[WTI @ $74 on 30-01-2010, first plunged to $68.00, but ran up to $114 a year later, before correcting back down to $75 again.  Some of our guys day trade CL (idiots) and so would disregard any mainstream media opinions or guesses]   
Turner's prediction of +266% in Crude Oil has not been realized thus far, although this in fact, IS possible in 2013. 
"China could explode" 
[A general China short is not an easy thing to act on unfortunately. Turner's "contrarian" (lol)  instincts however correctly sensed that at this point, China was indeed blowing its own bubbles all over the place, (since burst) and wanted in]
"there are huge opportunities for global investors, I think the equity markets are actually going to do quite well, equities are going up, trending above the moving averages, so I think we're in a young bull market that might last a little longer.. 
Note, correct call (1.) at this point!!  
Real estate is going down  [Anti-Turner ETF goes long Canadian RE]
"Lets not forget how 2008 felt, markets going down 500 points a day, people were freaking out, it came out of nowhere, it could happen again..  I think probably, it will.." 
(1.) [Whoops, blew it again]   
Bonds are going down because interest rates going up 
[Anti-Turner ETF goes long whatever bonds Turner was referring to] 
So, not even 3 whole years ago, Garth Turner seemed to understand (in the loosest definition of the word) the seriousness of the global situation, whilst not appreciating that global central Banks would print money continually to try to prevent the inevitable global debt destruction and deleveraging that must one day arrive even with monetary debasement. 

In the meantime this would so obviously cause a lull in the action, and the appearance of a recovery (to anybody with a goldfish length memory).  Three years later, we are now that much nearer the ultimate destination, nothing is fixed, banks are bigger and more dangerous than ever, the derivatives market has grown even larger, more concentrated and dangerous than ever (MFGlobal, London Whale $6bn loss) 

Meanwhile Turner has been  lulled back into his (retail trader) comfort zone once again, (see this nonsense) ready to be blindsided once more, only this time he has clients he is pushing into "Financial Assets"

When we talked previously about Turner's continual capitulation flip-flopping on the reactive side of the market,  he is still flopping, while the market has once more flipped ahead of him.

Mr Turner, a few questions for you to mull over in those quiet hours of self doubt you have in the middle of the night, that the idiots believe might help your limited understanding of long term macro events.
  1. Why did you not see the gold run from $1088 upwards? (+51% Jan 10 - date) ..if you could just work out the answer to that..
  2. What are negative real interest rates?  Why are they important? 
  3. What is Shadow banking?
  4. What is the future significance of open ended Fed stimulus on the USD bond markets? 
  5. What are the implications of a $4 trillion Fed balance sheet at the end of 2013?
  6. What significance does Japan's imminent negative current account have on global financial outlook?
  7. Whats significance does Japan's latest open ended commitment to money printing stimulus have?
  8. What is the significance of the Fed printing enough new money in 2013 to buy 11% of the world's above ground store of gold
  9. When the Fed owns the majority of US Govt debt, who could they ever sell to? 
  10. Why are the Chinese amassing Gold at an unprecedented rate?
  11. What is the significance of the Gold:Oil ratio, and why has it been relatively stable at around 15:1 for 40+ years?

We believe reaching a true understanding in these questions would give you a much better shot at being on the right side of a long term trend moving forwards, rather than running headlong into bursting bubbles every few years.  In the meantime, if you could let us know promptly on your blog whenever you capitulate and decide to add more gold to your diversified portfolios?

 As on that very day we will be looking to unload some

3 comments:

  1. Bravo! Thanks for this blog. It's about time someone called this cheap salesman out with fact. Turner's abysmal record of consistently wrong calls year after year negate any possible correct call he might possibly make in the future. One problem is his followers believe he's some sort of an insider given his pathetic party-jumping political career. In reality he's been a laughing stock on the outside since the beginning. What a charlatan.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Craig.

    please don't resort to name-calling it was never our intention to get into a slagfest, just (idiot level, obviously) intelligent debate about the future, which Turner will not permit on his blog if the facts prove him to have weak arguments.

    and given the disparate nature of the internet we just thought a round up of everything out there gathered in one place, might one day save a few potential fools a lot of money.

    (we are allowed to say idiots and fools obviously as these are the terms Turner himself used)

    ReplyDelete
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